Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
