Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
